Monte Carlo simulation in Excel

This video walks through how to do a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel.

When one or more of the inputs to a model is a random variable (e.g. a dice roll for simulating a game, or an interest rate forecast for a financial model), the output of the model will be different every time it runs.

A Monte Carlo simulation runs the model hundreds or thousands of times, and lets you get better information about the average result, or the distributions (e.g. what are the odds that we won't be able to refinance our debt with an acceptable debt service coverage ratio if future interest rates and some business drivers are randomized to some distribution).

This simple example, from a ModelOff question, is based on the game Snakes and Ladders.

You can find all the ModelOff past questions (including this one, which is question 4 from round 1 of 2014) here:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1IsojxZw9K8ZbAHwduQiO6pihWFwJ09fu?usp=sharing
You can also find the solution model I built during this video there as well (look in the 'Solutions' folder for this round).

I strongly encourage you to try the question yourself before you watch this video or look at my solution model. This video has some more detailed thoughts on how to get the most out of the questions:
https://youtu.be/TKEkLXUmx8M

Sections
00:00 Introduction
01:16 Model setup
08:00 Monte Carlo simulation
10:47 Equalizing winning odds
18:25 Non-random version with Markov chains

P.S.: I'm continuing to experiment with generative AI for my thumbnails - this one was created by Bing Create from the prompt "a roulette wheel spinning, with a green logo in the middle with a large letter X on it" (I tried telling it to put the Excel logo in there, but I guess it doesn't do that...). It's the first time that one of my thumbnails doesn't look like it was made in MS Paint! : )