Housing Market CRASH has STARTED смотреть онлайн

There are more signs that this housing bubble which we are in with insane housing prices has an end in sight. So let's do a quick recap before we get into the new bits. Housing prices have gone up over 24% in the last year. This is being driven by: • The quest for more space during the global health crisis • Record low mortgage rates • Limited supply of new homes due to high material prices and labor shortages • Greater employer flexibility • The rise of the cash offer driven by yield searching investment firms and financial institutions So what's changing: • Sales of newly built homes dropped in June to the lowest level since the early days of the health crisis. Sales of new single-family homes fell to an annualized rate of 676,000, 6.6% below Mays rate of 724,000, and 19.4% below the June 2020 level of 839,000. • The median price of a newly built home in June rose just 6% from June 2020, and while that is a large gain historically, it is nothing compared to the 15%-20% annual gains seen in previous months. • The inventory of new homes for sale jumped from a 5.5 month supply in May to a 6.3 month supply in June. Last fall, it sat at a low of just 3.5 months. • And lumber prices continue to deteriorate. While more can still be done on materials costs and housing starts need to get more robust particularly on the lower end, these are all signs that the tides are slowly starting to turn. Prices are slowly getting into that unaffordable range and with mortgage rates ever so slowly rising the amount of cushion for the buyer is deteriorating. And people are just bowing out. They have had enough. They are emotionally drained and are willing to wait. But there are other factors as well….The biggest one being an end to federal support. • The foreclosure moratorium, which prevents foreclosures of federally backed mortgages comes to an end on July 31. • Then on September 30, the mortgage forbearance program, which allows some borrowers to pause their payments, will lapse. Since the start of the health issue, over 7 million homeowners were enrolled in the forbearance program. As things have continued to improve, there are still over 1.75 million borrowers or 3.5% of U.S mortgages, enrolled in the forbearance program. Now there's two wild cards of course. Not sure if you can have 2 wildcards, but anyway: • One being, how many of these forbearance program enrollees will sell; and • Two, could the government extend the forbearance program At this stage on the second point at least, there's no indication of it being a likely scenario as the white house has been complimentary of the growing economy. So when can we see an end to this bubble? I think we are a good 6-9 months out for the confluence of activities to really take hold. • You have to wait till September for the forbearance program to end and a month or so for homeowners to determine their next steps. • It's going to take some doing for materials prices to come down further to meet the production needs of home builders to address the demand on the low end • The winter months are typically a slower period, thus giving supply chains an opportunity to catch up as demand withers. • And if mortgage rates rise faster subsequent to what most believe is a critical Jackson Hole meeting for the Fed, it will certainly reduce the pace of prices rising. So what are your thoughts? When do you think this bubble will burst – is it 3-6 months, 6-9 months or greater than 9 months. Include those in the comments below. Other Links: Whats driving the housing crash: https://youtu.be/PRvPm1Eg6WY How to make the winning housing bid: https://youtu.be/PDrxsiZ4oLw Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCT0Po7FRDA2hguN8iud0UoQ My other channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/QUICKMONEYSTOCKS DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in these videos are not meant to be financial advice. Always consult with your financial advisor and do your own due diligence as individual facts and circumstances may vary. #housingbubble #housingmarketcrash

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